North Korea's clever ruse

Three days ago, North Korea agreed to cease its nuclear and missile tests, as well as to let International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) inspectors visit its nuclear enrichment site at Yongbyon. This announcement has been hailed as a revolution in North Korean-U.S. relations. That may not be the case.

First of all, this is no dismantling of North Korea's nuclear program. North Korea's nuclear weapons aren't going anywhere, and testing isn't entirely necessary for the endurance of a functioning nuclear program. The U.S.' last test was in 1992, Russia's last one was in 1990, and neither India nor Pakistan has tested a weapon since 1998, yet no one would claim that any of those countries have poor quality nuclear programs. There are ways to test nuclear weapons without actually detonating the weapon (for example, by testing each individual part to ensure that it works), and it seems probable that the North Koreans will do this. Further, missiles can be tested by reconfiguring them as space-launch systems and then launching satellites into orbit, so North Korea's missile tests may not even be halted.

Second, North Korea's promise to allow IAEA to visit the Yongbyon site is meaningless for a number of reasons. There may be a number of hidden nuclear facilities in North Korea, and even if there are not, Yongbyon is just one nuclear facility, so the expected results from these IAEA inspections will most likely be negligible. Regardless, there is no unique benefit to these IAEA inspections, since Yongbyon has been subject to annual inspections from American nuclear physicist Dr. Sigfried Hecker since 2004.

Finally, the only benefactor from this deal is Kim Jong-un and his regime. Kim will be popular at home since he has secured at least 242,000 tons of much needed food aid for his people without sacrificing the popular nuclear program, breaking a decades-long famine there; and he will be popular abroad because this deal makes it look like Kim is giving up his nuclear program and putting the interests of his people before his own. Meanwhile, North Korea is as confrontational as ever, evidenced by Kim's threat of "divine war" in retaliation for South Korea's military exercises that have started today. The U.S. has just lost one of its biggest bargaining chips with North Korea, food aid, and North Korea will gain undeserved international respect for appearing to have sacrificed its nuclear program. This is the biggest failure in U.S.-North Korean relations in recent history.